China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jun. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively...

28th June 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Rebound in underlying inflation points to July rate hike

The yen weakened to multi-decade lows against the dollar this week and the Bank of Japan is getting increasingly worried that rising import costs are creating upside risks to inflation. Indeed, the...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025

Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (June)

The continued fall in the job-to-applicant ratio isn’t translating into a higher labour market and the bulk of the evidence suggests that the labour market has continued to tighten. And with...

28th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The Brazilian real at 30

Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing...

27th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM easing cycle moving into a new phase

Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is...

27th June 2024 · 26 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling...

27th June 2024 · 46 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth strengthened at the end of Q2, with our regional-weighted measure of sentiment...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year

Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in...

26th June 2024 · 14 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024)

The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least.

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 24)

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but...

25th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read