Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2 We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (November 2024) The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward... 14th November 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some... 11th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
