UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption? Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2025) The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services disinflation will resume in 2025 Services inflation in the euro-zone was stuck around 4% last year but we remain convinced that it will decline significantly in 2025. 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: January rate hike now looking likely A flurry of communication by the Bank of Japan this week suggests that a rate hike at next week's meeting is very likely. And whereas the financial markets foresee just one additional 25bp rate hike... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA may look past the tight labour market At first glance, data released this week should lessen the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen policy settings. After all, we learned that both unemployment and underutilisation rates... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel after the war: what comes next? The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can... 16th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: GNU has tough task to realise economic potential Six months since its formation, South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has fostered a lot of goodwill in the market. Loadshedding is seemingly a thing of the past, logistics constraints... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank set for gradual loosening cycle December’s weaker-than-expected inflation outturn won’t sway Norges Bank: we still expect it to wait until March to start cutting interest rates. We suspect that it will then lower rates gradually... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.23% m/m increase in core CPI in December appears consistent with a below-target 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. Although that would leave core PCE inflation... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec '24.) The further rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 34.8% y/y in December, raises the risk that the central bank pushes ahead with one last interest rate hike at their next meeting in February... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
