Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: inflation, rates, and budget optimism Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Otherwise, President Tinubu unveiled the 2025... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the... 19th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi inflation, Moroccan rates Saudi inflation rose further in November but there were tentative signs that some of the recent drivers of higher price pressures are fading and we expect the headline rate to drop back towards 1% by... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025 The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 24) November’s surge in inflation wasn’t a surprise – the Bank of Japan will have known it was on the cards when it decided not to hike rates yesterday. But it should add to the Bank’s confidence that it... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive... 18th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying price pressures continue to ease Underlying inflation remains high but is on a downward trend and we expect it to fall much further next year. This should prompt the ECB to cut interest rates a bit further than investors anticipate. 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
