UK inflation dips to 2.5% in December Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the inflation data would be “welcome news for the Bank [of England] and the chancellor”. 15th January 2025 · The Times
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Dec. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 2.0% y/y in November to 1.9% y/y in December and it is likely to hover around these rates over the first half of 2025 before slowing toward 1%... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for below-neutral rates in Australia It’s possible that prolonged weakness in economic activity and a jump in unemployment force the RBA to cut rates more aggressively than we’re anticipating. However, a more likely scenario resulting in... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) On the surface, the weaker than expected 0.2% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged level of core final demand PPI in December seems encouraging, but they mask some price jumps in a few of... 14th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The further moderation in Indian headline consumer price inflation in December supports our view that the monetary easing cycle will kick off at the RBI’s next policy meeting in February. 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
