China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess supply in the goods and labour markets. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation, which we think... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market driving spending and inflation fears The tightening of Brazil’s labour market and pick-up in wage growth over the first half of the year has supported a consumer boom. We expect conditions to cool over the coming quarters but, for now... 5th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the... 5th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls... 5th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further weakness in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that the outlook for global industry remains bleak, particularly in advanced economies. And although price pressures seem to have increased, we doubt that this marks the... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little... 3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October. 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
