Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed... 28th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing... 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (January 2025) We expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q4, and January’s PMIs point to a similarly poor performance at the start of Q1 . 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Cooling labour markets will support disinflation Data released this week suggest that the RBNZ's concerns about the stickiness of homegrown inflation are overdone. Indeed, non-tradables inflation undershot the Bank's expectations for a second... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025 1738249200 Economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing all about the first rate decisions of 2025
ECB Watch Slow and steady cuts by the ECB The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate from 3.00% to 2.75% next week and signal that further reductions are likely. But it will stop short of giving any precise guidance about the timing and scale... 23rd January 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank prepares the ground for rate cuts Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March, almost certainly with a 25bp reduction to 4.25%. We think it will then loosen... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
