UK Economics Update

Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts

The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation...

9th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 25.5% y/y in November to 24.1% y/y in December, its slowest pace in two years. With earlier falls in the pound falling out of the annual price comparison...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start...

9th January 2025 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2024)

Headline CPI inflation fell but this was driven by weather-related volatility in food prices. More important is that core CPI and PPI both continued to pick up, adding to signs that policy stimulus is...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: interest rates heading down in 2025

We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still...

8th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (December 2024)

The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky.

8th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (December)

The fall in inflation in December will ease policymakers’ concerns about upside risks to inflation. We had previously been expecting them to wait until March before cutting the policy rate for a last...

8th January 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Focus

Bank of Japan can’t declare 2% inflation victory just yet

We now expect underlying inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for most of 2025 and the Bank to hike rates to 1.25%. However, we believe that it’s too early for the Bank to declare...

8th January 2025 · 16 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 24)

8th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace

The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even...

7th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up...

7th January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (December 2024)

The continued stickiness of euro-zone services inflation means that the ECB is likely to keep cutting interest rates only slowly even as the economic outlook remains poor.

7th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (December)

The fall in Swiss inflation in December suggests that the SNB’s decision to cut by a bumper 50bp in December was fully justified. We think the SNB will cut the policy rate by a further 25bp at its...

7th January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Flash HICP (December)

Data for Germany and Spain suggest euro-zone inflation was higher than expected in December. However, we still think that inflation is likely to undershoot the ECB’s forecasts later this year causing...

6th January 2025 · 2 mins read