India Economics Weekly Debate over inflation target misses the point A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Too early to declare end of tightening cycle Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past buoyant public demand We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (July 24) With underlying inflation falling below 2% for the first time since 2022 and set to decline further, the case for further monetary tightening is starting to diminish. 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs hint at slower growth and inflation ahead The latest flash PMIs suggest that strong activity in the service sector has continued to support GDP growth in advanced economies in Q3, but that the outlook has worsened somewhat. Meanwhile... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug. 2024) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of August, to 5.2% y/y, alongside clear signals from the Fed that it will start loosening monetary policy next month, supports our view that Banxico... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Big fall in negotiated wage inflation The scale of the fall in negotiated wage inflation in Q2 was largely due to one-off payments made in Germany in March but not repeated in Q2. However, the underlying trend in wage inflation is clearly... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s composite PMI provides further evidence that some of the recent strength of activity in the first half of this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the mild recession in the... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation? We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (August 2024) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
