Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint slump to trigger renewed talk of IMF deal The latest slump in the Hungarian forint has taken the currency to below 300/€ – the rate that, on past form at least, has triggered a response from the authorities. This time around, the response... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe’s currencies caught in the crossfire The growing risk of Greece leaving the euro-zone has taken a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s currencies. Most are now back at their lows seen in the autumn of last year. Looking ahead, there is... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the Reserve Bank‘s support for the rupee succeed? We doubt that the Reserve Bank of India’s recent efforts to prop up the rupee will succeed. However, this may be a good thing, as India would benefit from a more competitive currency. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Safe haven demand pushes gilt yields to record lows Long-run UK government bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels since records began in 1703 due to a further increase in global demand for safe-haven assets. This increase in demand has more... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (May) Fresh hopes that some equity markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had turned a corner at the start of 2012 have quickly faded. Instead, attention has turned to Islamic bond markets... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Risky assets run out of steam The US stock market paused for breath in April after a strong first quarter, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined by around 30bp – more than reversing the rise seen in March. The triggers... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for the Vietnamese dong? After a large devaluation early last year, the Vietnamese dong has been stable against the US dollar for the past 15 months. The fall in the trade deficit and easing inflation mean the currency is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the widened renminbi band? The immediate impact of a wider renminbi trading band on the exchange rate will be small, we suspect, but the reform is an important signal of renewed momentum behind economic policy liberalisation. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Confidence knocked by renewed euro-zone fears A reassessment of the likelihood of a default by a peripheral euro-zone sovereign, as well as some less encouraging news on the pace of the global economic recovery, has hit UK equities and prompted... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
