Europe Economics Weekly How much will the strong euro hurt? The euro’s rise to a nine-month high against the US dollar last week suggests that the euro-zone has lost what may turn out to be the opening skirmishes of a global currency war. If the euro remained... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can exporters survive a stronger renminbi? Export margins did not fall when the renminbi was last rising against the dollar and Chinese producers continued to gain global market share. There is no reason to think that China’s export sector is... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fears of currency debasement buoy the euro The strength of the euro against the dollar in September coincided with a change in investors’ perceptions about the relative outlook for unconventional monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how significant is yen intervention? This month’s intervention by Japan to weaken the yen has contributed to fears of a “global currency war” or, viewed more positively, to hopes that large-scale unsterilised intervention by the major... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone be the biggest loser in a currency war? If the world is about to engage in a currency war, the euro-zone’s arsenal looks poorly stocked. 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would dollar weakness force China to revalue? Chinese policymakers probably would respond to any substantial fall in the dollar by allowing more rapid renminbi appreciation. But hopes that a dollar collapse could force China into the sort of... 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we on the cusp of a currency war? Last night Brazil’s Finance Minister reportedly warned of a global “currency war”. We think direct currency intervention by policymakers in the major western developed economies at least is very... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil’s 'currency war' Last night’s warning by the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, that an ‘international currency war’ has broken out has grabbed some predictable headlines. We discussed the issue of rapid... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia is re-balancing and will continue to lead (Q3 10) The global upswing is now regaining some traction and the threat of renewed financial crisis has diminished. However, the world recovery will stay weak and vulnerable to other risks such as deflation... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Capital controls back on the agenda Latin America’s floating currencies have bounced back strongly after a brief wobble in May and, with the notable exception of the Mexican peso, most now look expensive relative to ‘fair value’... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indian rupee on a roll which will likely continue India’s currency has climbed sharply against the US dollar since the beginning of September, and the appreciation will probably continue. Capital inflows are likely to stay strong as investors... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP intervention to stabilise peso, for now The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) this afternoon announced that it will resume market intervention to stem the appreciation of the peso. History shows that this may be successful in preventing the... 15th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mounting US pressure behind renminbi movement The renminbi’s latest gains appear to be a response to rising US criticism that the pace of movement in the exchange rate since June has been too slow. This reactive approach could backfire as... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit internationalisation is far away Over the weekend, Prime Minister Najib Razak stated that Malaysia was looking at allowing offshore trading of the ringgit. But Malaysia would need to make the currency fully convertible on the capital... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets show mixed reaction to downbeat economic data (Sep 10) Growing signs that the UK’s recovery has begun to falter have been met by markedly different reactions from the bond and equity markets. While real yields in the gilt market have fallen to record lows... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
