Latin America Economics Update Currency depreciation unlikely to delay interest rate cuts for long We doubt that the recent sell-off of currencies in Latin America will cause inflation to rise significantly over the coming months. Indeed, with economic activity set to slow over the coming months... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to slide further The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market turmoil finally gives the dollar a lift The dollar finally got a big boost in September from the euro-zone’s intensifying debt crisis and gloomy news on the global economy. The Fed’s major trade-weighted dollar index rose by nearly 6%... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how safe is the yen? As the euro-zone debt crisis continues to send shockwaves through the financial markets, it is ironic that the best performing of the world’s major currencies so far this year has been the yen. After... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold still deserves “safe haven” status The recent sharp falls in the dollar price of gold have led some to question its status as a refuge from problems elsewhere, especially now that the US currency is strengthening across the board... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we make of the real’s fall from grace? Fears that the slump in the Brazilian real will lead to a further rise in inflation look greatly exaggerated. There is almost no relationship between fluctuations in the currency and inflation, while... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The big picture on emerging market currencies The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts – even lower Treasury yields ahead We have reviewed our projections for currency, government bond and stock markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are two main changes. First, we are revising... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan follow Switzerland and cap the yen? The yen initially fell against the dollar following the Swiss move to set a formal limit on the strength of the franc. As it happens, we do not think that the authorities in Tokyo are ready to do the... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Defying gravity The slowdown in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets undermined the prices of industrial metals and oil in August. Admittedly, these prices ended the month on a more positive note... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will Japan's policymakers do next? Japan’s policymakers have sat on their hands and watched the yen climb to new highs since intervening in foreign exchange markets earlier this month. We expect recent financial market turmoil to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does rising credit risk pose a threat to Bunds? The cost of insuring against a default by the German government for five years has nearly doubled since early July and now exceeds the cost of insuring against a default by the UK government for the... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
