Europe Economics Weekly ECB & rising euro pose new threats Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update "Currency war" still phoney but China tensions spreading The Brazilian government’s accusations that the US is engaged in a “currency war” are always good for a headline but continue to have little foundation. China’s manipulation of the renminbi remains a... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to outperform market expectations in 2011 President Hu Jintao’s visit to the US later in January will draw attention back to the renminbi. We believe that markets are underestimating the likely pace of appreciation over the year ahead. In... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China save the euro? Despite some hopes to the contrary, China is unlikely to be able or willing to do much to solve the debt crisis in the euro-zone. China was presumably already buying a significant amount of peripheral... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile joins the 'currency war' The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) will begin intervening in the currency market tomorrow in a bid to weaken the peso. But while the peso has fallen by 5% against the dollar today, history suggests that... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank signals more rate hikes to come The Swedish Riksbank responded to the recent strong economic data by raising interest rates today for the fourth time since July. But while further rate hikes are inevitable, we expect monetary policy... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess outlook for monetary policy The continued run of positive data on the UK’s economic recovery has led markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Markets now expect official interest rates to rise by around 1% over the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets become more optimistic on recovery On the whole, financial markets have become increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the UK’s recovery. Interest rate expectations have begun to rise again and equities have rebounded, while... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Disappointing start to Q4 for the Russian economy While there are tentative signs that the agricultural sector is recovering from this summer’s drought, the raft of October activity data released this afternoon suggest that the Russian economy made a... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall further against the dollar We expect the Japanese yen to weaken further against the US dollar, to 90 next year and 100 in 2012 (from around 83 today), despite a steady grind higher in most other Asian currencies. In contrast to... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US already begun a “currency war”? The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Robust economic data boost market confidence Recent market movements suggest that investors have taken the robust economic data and the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold back from restarting quantitative easing (QE) at its... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning against the euro? The near 20% rise in the euro against the US dollar over the last six months has clearly not sat comfortably with our prediction back in May that the single currency would depreciate further and drop... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
