Global Markets Update What next for the yen? The persistent strength of the Japanese currency despite last month’s announcement of an unimpressive fiscal plan has led us to scale back our expectations for a sharp sell-off in the second half of... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there a silver lining to the euro crisis? Today’s news that Hungarian industrial production grew by a massive 5.4% m/m in May could be another sign that a weaker euro is actually helping manufacturers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A mid-year progress report Looking back over the first half of the year, we have been right to be relatively bullish on the strength of the economic recovery in Japan. However, the yen has remained stronger and Japanese... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength not fatal, but clearly unwelcome We are not as worried as some about the impact of a stronger yen on the Japanese economy, but the past week saw two timely reminders of why it cannot be ignored completely. The recovery in export... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts a week into currency reform In the first week after the People’s Bank (PBC) decided to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform, the renminbi strengthened a total of 0.5% against the dollar. A little under half of those gains... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot inflows not likely to be a major threat With expectations for the pace of future renminbi appreciation low, speculative capital flows into China are unlikely to take off. Even if they do, the People’s Bank is capable of responding... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lessons from 2005 for the renminbi The renminbi came close to breaching the People’s Bank 0.5% trading band against the dollar today, however such strong gains are unlikely to be a sign of what is to come. Indeed, when currency reform... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Pace of renminbi appreciation set to disappoint The timing of China’s decision to allow greater flexibility in the renminbi has caught many others by surprise. But those now expecting a large appreciation against the dollar, and for this to boost... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies set to rise further The shift to de-peg the renminbi against the US dollar, announced on Saturday, will probably bring further FX rate appreciation across Asia, even though China is likely to move slowly from now on. The... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s decline to resume before long On the face of it, the fact that the euro last week saw its strongest weekly gain in nine months might suggest that the worst is past for the single currency. The improvement could partly have... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi reform restarts Proof will come in the next day or two, but the decision of the People’s Bank to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform almost certainly means the renminbi’s hard dollar peg is at an end. 20th June 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to scale back currency intervention The SNB’s hints that it will scale back its currency intervention suggest that the franc is set to appreciate more sharply and interbank interest rates should rise back towards the Bank’s target of 0... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Fading recovery prospects darken market outlook Since our last Markets Analyst, there have been growing signs that the global economic recovery, and the UK’s recovery in particular, is built on fragile foundations that will buckle under the weight... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Do wage increases reduce the need for currency appreciation? Rapid wage increases may play a big role in rebalancing China’s economy in the years ahead. In the short term though, they are no substitute for nominal currency appreciation. 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Franc’s surge a reminder of fragility of East Europe’s banks The recent surge in the Swiss franc has rekindled fears over the health of Eastern Europe’s banking sector. As it happens, the bulk of foreign currency lending in the region has taken place in euros... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
