Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 1722861000 Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears?
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Recession fears and the dollar, lessons from 2020 & 2023 Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Given that we broadly share investors' view about how far DM central banks will ease... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The US election and financial markets three months out Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump... 1st August 2024 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields. 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (July 2024) We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. We expect the “big-tech” sectors to lead the charge again before long, helping equities in the US outperform... 31st July 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
