DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will... 21st March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets 1713362400 Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook 1712822400 In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.
Event Drop-In: China equities outlook – Valuations, earnings, fracturing 1712217600 It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Inflation uncertainty could keep the dollar stronger for longer Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q1 2024) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 15th March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the stock market It is no surprise that the confidence of US consumers is closely aligned to the health of the stock market these days. After all, the share of households that own equities is the highest in at least... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Where to spot financial risk in emerging markets 1711551600 Recent years have sharpened investor focus on identifying risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the surge in US rates have exposed
Capital Daily Headwinds likely to persist for LatAm equities and FX Most major equity markets and currencies in Latin America have lagged those in other regions since the start of the year, and we expect their underperformance to continue for some time. 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
