Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump term remains the key uncertainty – a Harris presidency would probably look a lot like the status quo. Our sense is that, in the event of a Trump win, most of his more radical policy proposals would end up being delayed and/or watered down. But even a partial implementation could be enough to disrupt the ongoing fall in Treasury yields and risk undermining the AI exuberance in the US stock market.
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