Capital Daily European corporate bond yields could fall further We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stock markets fall back: consolidation or worse? Stock markets are having a tough start to the quarter, but we think that they will rebound, notably in the US, thanks to renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. 22nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Geopolitics might not thwart a recovery in bank shares All nine constituents of the S&P 500 diversified banks index have now released their earnings reports for Q1. While the performance of their shares has typically been underwhelming of late, in some... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is the future brighter for US banks? Higher Treasury yields, a resilient US economy, and relatively low valuations are three reasons why we now think that the future for US banks in general is a bit brighter. 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curve phoney war redux; how different is this time? Despite the ongoing surge in long-term government bond yields, the US yield curve remains inverted. As such, it is worth revisiting what the implications are for financial markets, and how this... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What different timings for rate cuts mean for DM bond yields We forecast that bond yields will fall back in most developed markets (DMs) over the next year or so, as central banks generally embark on bigger easing cycles than investors currently expect. But... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets 1713880800 The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.
Capital Daily Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the... 17th April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecast for the US dollar Continued resilience in the US economy looks set to delay the Fed easing cycle until (at least) the second half of this year, so we now think the greenback will stay strong against most currencies... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The correlation between bond yields and equites The correlation between changes in bond yields and in equities has rarely been so negative, and we suspect this will continue as yields fall back and equities rebound. 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Fed – not the Middle East – still the bigger worry for markets Financial markets have, so far, taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the weekend largely in stride. Our sense remains that, absent an even larger conflagration that disrupts energy... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar soars on CPI bombshell; more to come? The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print, a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China. The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year. 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
