Capital Daily Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy... 12th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen on the move as payrolls brings dollar back to square one Today’s softish US non-farm payrolls report, combined with Fed Chair Powell’s relatively neutral testimony to Congress earlier in the week, has put an end to the dollar’s strong start to 2024, and... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Revisiting the link between US labour and stock markets Today’s favourable reaction in financial markets to February’s US Employment Report probably reflects the inflation-friendly news of softer-than-expected growth in average hourly earnings amid mixed... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What might move euro-zone bond yields now? We doubt that ECB policy will have much impact on German bond yields this year and next – if anything, risks are skewed to the upside. But the outlook may be a bit brighter for Italian bonds, and we... 7th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily UK fiscal fictions unlikely to prevent lower Gilt yields Today’s UK budget announcement contained no major surprises, leaving our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to fall further this year and sterling to struggle against other major currencies intact. 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 1709722800 The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
Capital Daily Three lessons from China’s Two Sessions We think there are three key points for investors to note from today’s announcements at the National People’s Congress annual “Two Sessions”, where the country’s authorities, among other things, have... 5th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble doesn’t need rate cuts We don’t think Fed rate cuts are a necessary condition for the stock market bubble to inflate further. After all, most measures of equity risk premia have scope to fall as hype around AI grows. 4th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Calm in FX markets lowers the bar for further dollar strength The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are more widows in the making? Today’s rise in the 2-year Japanese government bond yield to its new highest level since 2011 raises the question of whether this is the start of a far bigger sell-off in the bond market, or just... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see falling PCE inflation weighing on Treasury yields January US PCE inflation is in line with our view that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will return to target by mid-year, allowing policymakers to cut rates further than investors seem to... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most 'risky' assets fared well this month, with resilient economic activity helping to... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
