FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RBNZ on hold, a positive signal for bond markets? The RBNZ’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold today illustrates how the bar for further rate hikes has become increasingly high for most central banks, even in the face of upside surprises to... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What is behind the narrow equity rally? While enthusiasm over AI probably explains much of the “Magnificent Seven’s” outperformance in the US, the outperformance of the largest stocks in other markets is indicative of a broader shift in... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Good mood in non-US equities may continue to build up While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar struggles amid “risk on” mood in broader markets The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine? Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the US dollar and stocks remain in lockstep? So far this year, the US dollar has moved in tandem with the relative performance of US equities. While that may continue over short time horizons, we doubt the rally in US equities we anticipate over... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s unusual about this bubble and whether it matters Unlike most bubbles, this one hasn’t been accompanied, at least so far, by obvious signs of high and rising leverage. On the other hand, the share of funds invested in ‘passive’ products is now much... 20th February 2024 · 6 mins read
