UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over? We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today. 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will the BCB hike rates? The minutes to last week’s central bank meeting in Brazil raised the possibility that policymakers will respond to the worsening inflation outlook by hiking interest rates. And despite the sharp shift... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 1722861000 Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears?
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
