Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The causes, consequences, and future of the Treasury sell-off We don’t expect the tough times to last for Treasuries. But although their woes so far have coincided with big gains in the stock market (at least until very recently) we don’t think a recovery in... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of inflation risk premia Despite yet another hotter-than-expected US CPI release, there are few signs in bond markets that long-term inflation expectations are de-anchoring. That supports our base case that US Treasury yields... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the scope for further euro weakness The euro has fallen sharply against the greenback this week, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it weakens a bit further in the short term. That said, we think a fall below parity in the EUR/USD rate is... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ... 11th April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How big a threat is inflation to US equities? Today’s slump in S&P 500, following the release of a hotter-than-expected US CPI report for March, underscores the US stock market’s vulnerability to disappointing news on inflation. (See Chart 1.)... 10th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year We think the price of gold will have eased back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated. 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls report points to continued near-term dollar resilience Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Further upside in US yields & dollar looks limited to us Continued strength in the US labour market may keep US Treasury yields elevated and the greenback strong in the short term, but we think the upside for both is limited from here. And the backdrop for... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily One boat the rising tide of optimism is failing to lift While a rising tide of optimism has lifted most boats in the US stock market so far this year, real estate is the notable exception. That may change if, as we anticipate, the 10-year Treasury yield... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Outlook US dollar still likely to weaken later in 2024 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot as US growth and inflation again surprised to the upside, prompting the Fed to (again) take a more hawkish stance than other major central banks... 4th April 2024 · 24 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 24) China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the India/China equity market narrative shifting? We think China’s equities could fare better than those in India in the near term. Note: We will be discussing the outlook for Chinese equities in a special 20-minute online briefing on Thursday 4th... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
