Capital Daily How China’s rate cuts could play out in its markets We expect China’s bonds, currency and equities to rally over the rest of this year. 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year. 19th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Can the party keep going for Japan’s equities? We think Japan’s stock market will take a turn for the worse before long, weighed by what we expect will be a rebound in the yen. And while that nonetheless could mean decent returns in US dollar... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging inflation stories prop up dollar, for now The theme of the week has been one of diverging inflation stories which have helped boost the US dollar. These divergences came not just between economies (hot inflation data in the US and cold in the... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the yen looks overdone to us The rise in US bond yields has put renewed pressure on the yen, but we think further downside is limited. We still expect Treasury yields to resume their downward trend and for the yen to benefit most... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilts may keep rallying as UK inflation tumbles We think that UK inflation will continue to fall faster and further than many seem to be expecting, paving the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates by more than is now discounted in... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble may be far from bursting The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months. We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future may be brighter for EM equities We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to... 9th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update US credit spreads could fall further despite high bankruptcies US corporate credit spreads have continued to shrink even as bankruptcies have soared but, while they are now fairly narrow, we think there is still some scope for them to tighten further over the... 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
