Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to a multi-decade low of 1.9% y/y in May will give Copom plenty of room to cut interest rates when it meets next week. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp cut at that meeting... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 18.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in April was not as calamitous as we and most others had feared, but it still highlights that GDP will fall dramatically in Q2 – perhaps by 10-12%... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2020) The 1.5% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 highlights that the economy had slipped into a deep downturn by March, even though the country was slow to impose lockdown measures. And more timely figures... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The Brazilian real and commodity prices Our forecast that the Brazilian real will recoup some lost ground by end-2020 should put upward pressure on the prices of its commodity exports. However, other factors, such as the health of the... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2020) The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 2.0% y/y in the first half of this month provides plenty of space for Copom to follow up this month’s 75bp interest rate cut with more easing. For now, we have... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Covid-19 crisis & the mounting economic toll The continued rapid spread of the coronavirus through Brazil means that the economy will pull out of its slump more slowly than in many other emerging markets. And with the crisis challenging the... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom set to cut further, Chile’s CB stays the course The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp cut in the Selic rate last night and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement has prompted us to pencil in a further 50bp of cuts (to 2.50%) in the coming months... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico set for double-digit contractions The collapse in the confidence surveys in Brazil and Mexico last month point to a contraction in activity that exceeds that experienced in each economy during the Global Financial Crisis. And with... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 2.9% y/y in the first half of April suggests that Copom will be able to lower the Selic rate by an additional 50bp (to 3.25%) next week. The political crisis and... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The economic angle to Brazil’s (latest) political crisis Brazil’s economy is better placed to withstand a twin political and economic crisis than it was during the Dilma impeachment of 2015-16. But the brewing political mess could leave long-lasting damage... 27th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2020) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation, to 3.3% y/y last month, adds to reasons to think that Copom will cut the policy rate by another 50bp (to 3.25%) when it meets in early May. 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What do the latest surveys tell us? Last month’s survey data for Brazil and Mexico don’t capture most of the impact of the ramping up of social distancing measures in the second half of March, but they still suggest that both economies... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The COVID-19 cost and Brazil’s public debt problem The cost of the coronavirus will push Brazil’s public debt ratio up sharply this year, to about 90% of GDP, and policymakers will have their work cut out to stabilise the debt trajectory in the... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2020) The further fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of March will allow the central bank to lower the Selic rate by a further 50bp in the near term. But the scope for aggressive easing is limited. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB highlights limited space for policy response The Brazilian central bank’s (BCB’s) statement accompanying last night’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp was surprisingly cautious and suggested that further easing isn’t on the cards. With the... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
