Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tax reform, Chilean primary elections Proposed changes to Brazil’s income tax setup, which aim to cut corporate tax but only partly offset that with an end to exemptions and the introduction of a levy on dividends, add to the view that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the improvement in EM budget deficits Budget deficits have narrowed from their 2020 peaks across the emerging world. The improvements in Brazil and Argentina – where deficits appear to be narrower than their pre-pandemic levels – provide... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partially reversed the falls in output in the three preceding months. And while surveys point to a stronger reading in June, the sector... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2021) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.1% y/y in the middle of June, keeps Copom on track to increase the Selic rate to 6.50% (from 4.25% now). But we don’t think that the inflation risks are... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom’s inflation worries growing The hawkish statement from the Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was raised by 75bp to 4.25%) indicates that policymakers are more confident in the economic recovery but also... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May) The further jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate last month, to 8.1% y/y, makes a 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 4.25%) next week certain and Copom will probably signal that another 75bp hike is... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revising up our Brazil growth forecast The latest data suggest that Brazil’s economy has been much more resilient to the latest virus waves than we had anticipated and, as a result, we’re revising up our GDP growth forecast for this year... 3rd June 2021 · 5 mins read
