Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The worse-than-expected 1.3% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in April is likely to be followed by a partial recovery last month. That said, the latest surveys suggest that activity in... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2021) The 1.2% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP suggests that the economy held up well during the country’s second virus wave and more timely figures point to a rapid recovery from the more recent third wave... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2021) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 7.3% y/y in the middle of May, can partly be pinned on unfavourable base effects, but there are also signs of a broader increase in goods inflation. While... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How big a threat is Brazil’s drought to the recovery? For now, it seems unlikely that the drought affecting Brazil will hit hydropower production hard enough to cause disruptions to electricity supply and broader economic activity. But the drought does... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.8% in April makes another 75bp rate hike (to 4.25%) at the next central bank meeting in June highly likely. But the breakdown of the data provides reason... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom turning increasingly hawkish The statement accompanying Brazil’s central bank meeting, at which it raised the Selic rate by 75bp to 3.50%, was more hawkish than the previous one. While we doubt that the tightening cycle will go... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 2.4% m/m drop in Brazil’s industrial production in March is a clear sign that the severe virus outbreak has put the economic recovery into reverse and the data for April may be worse still. But... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2021) The jump in Brazil’s inflation to 6.2% y/y in mid-April is likely to keep the central bank on course to hike the Selic rate by 75bp, to 3.50%, at its meeting next week. 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.1% in March was largely a result of rising energy inflation, which will be transitory. Even so, the central bank is clearly worried by above-target inflation and... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The 0.7% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production was led by the auto sector, which may reflect supply shortages but also weakening demand following the end of emergency income support. With the... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2021) The surge in Brazilian inflation to 5.5% y/y in the middle of March – its highest rate in over four years – has further to run and the headline rate looks set to reach 7.5% y/y in Q2. That will result... 25th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s tightening cycle likely to be sharp but short The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 2.75%) and hawkish statement point to a front-loaded tightening cycle in the coming months. We now expect a further 200bp of hikes (to 4.75... 18th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazil’s stock market may continue to underperform We had expected Brazil’s stock market to be among the best performers in the world this year, but with the virus still running rampant and populist policymaking on the rise, we now think its... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2021) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 5.2% last month makes it almost certain that Copom will begin a tightening cycle next week. While we’ve pencilled in a 50bp rate hike (to 2... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
