Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Covid crisis: over the worst? While the number of new coronavirus cases in Brazil remains extremely high, strains in the country’s health care system have eased significantly in recent weeks, reducing the risk of fresh lockdowns... 8th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected 8.0% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July adds to signs that the economy has recovered strongly in Q3. But with fiscal austerity likely to kick in next year... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2020) The Brazilian Q2 GDP data, which showed a 9.7% q/q fall in output, confirmed that the country suffered one of the more modest downturns in Latin America. But with fiscal policy set to turn from a... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 2.3% y/y in the first half August, was relatively modest and we expect the headline rate to remain well below the central bank’s 2020 target of 4% over the... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery set to weaken The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: low rates here to stay The 25bp cut in the Selic rate, to 2.00%, at last night’s Brazilian central bank meeting probably marks the last reduction in the cycle, but the accompanying statement supports our view that rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 8.9% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in June and the jump in surveys for July highlight that the sector is recovering surprisingly quickly. But output is still well below its February... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2020) The softer-than-expected Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July, of 2.1% y/y, suggests that there is still scope for another interest rate cut in the current cycle. We expect a 25bp reduction... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tax reform push a step in the right direction The push by Brazil’s government to change the tax system provides a welcome sign that the government’s reform agenda is still progressing, despite the political infighting caused by the handling of... 22nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) Brazil’s industrial sector only recovered a small share of its coronavirus-related losses in May, with continued weakness the auto sector one key factor. While surveys suggest that the data for June... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2020) Brazil’s broadly steady mid-month inflation reading for June, of 1.9% y/y, masked the fact that a rise in food inflation offset falls in inflation in most other price categories. Weak price pressures... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom tempers hopes for further large rate cuts The statement from yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting poured cold water on expectations in the market that the Selic rate would be cut further from its current level of 2.25% to as low as 1.00... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to a multi-decade low of 1.9% y/y in May will give Copom plenty of room to cut interest rates when it meets next week. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp cut at that meeting... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
