Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov.) The slightly larger-than-expected Brazilian rise in Brazilian inflation in November, to 3.3% y/y, was driven partly by food inflation, but also by a rise in regulated prices. The data are unlikely to... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in October provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is shaping up to be a bit stronger than Q3’s 0.6% q/q. 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2019) The slightly better-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure of 0.6% q/q adds to the evidence that the recovery is gaining some momentum. But growth remains soft, and the central bank is still... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Inflation ticked up in the first half of November in both Brazil and Mexico, but we doubt that this will be enough to dissuade policymakers from cutting their key interest rates in December. We expect... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.5% in October, one of the lowest rates on record, makes another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at December’s Copom meeting almost certain. That said, policymakers have... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five points on Brazil’s fiscal reform package The fiscal package presented to Brazil’s congress yesterday shows that the government is not resting on its laurels after its successful pension reform. However, the good news on fiscal reform already... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in September serves as a reminder that, while the economy is now strengthening, it will be a weak and bumpy recovery. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: One more cut and done The statement accompanying last night’s Copom meeting gave a clear signal that there will be just one more 50bp interest rate cut in the current cycle (to 4.50%), which should temper expectations in... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: After pension reform, what next? Brazil’s pension reform bill should help to stabilise the public finances and lift a dark cloud over the outlook. The government has a long to-do list of further fiscal reforms, although the political... 22nd October 2019 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rate expectations: is exuberance setting in? The shift in market expectations in Brazil towards much larger interest rate cuts by early 2020 now looks overdone. However, expectations for the Selic rate over a longer time horizon (2-5 years) look... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Lower rates won’t lead to a lending revival The monetary transmission mechanism in Brazil seems to have weakened recently, which is likely to prevent the sharp fall in market interest rates seen since 2017 from feeding through to a significant... 10th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 2.9% y/y last month opens the door to another 50bp cut in the Selic rate when Copom meets at the end of this month. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform faces difficult final stretch Worsening relations between the Brazilian presidency and legislature threaten to delay the much-vaunted pension bill and will keep markets on tenterhooks in the coming weeks. It still looks like the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The better-than-expected 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was driven by rapid growth in the mining sector, which won’t be sustained. Even so, the figures add to the evidence that the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
