Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (May) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in May, is set to be followed by further declines, taking it below the central bank’s target. So long as the economy recovers from its recent weak patch... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The weakness of Brazilian industrial production, which expanded by just 0.3% m/m in April, was in part a result of a fall in output in the mining sector, which should unwind in the coming months. Even... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2019) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was, in part, the result of temporary factors including a sharp drop in iron ore output. But the early signs are that growth in Q2 has been very weak too and... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The softer-than-expected mid-month inflation Brazilian figure for May, of 4.9% y/y, suggests that the headline rate has now peaked, and we think it will fall back below the central bank’s target in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Brazilian inflation has probably now reached a peak and the headline rate should fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. With core inflation still extremely soft, the central bank... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.9% y/y in April, is unlikely to trouble Copom. The increase was driven by food, energy and administered prices; core inflation still looks soft. The... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: entering choppy waters… Opposition to Brazil’s pension reform has, so far, been limited to fairly minor components of the bill. But it will face more substantial resistance in the coming months. Ultimately, our sense is that... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank looking through inflation rise Copom’s statement from last night’s meeting highlighted that policymakers are not troubled at all by the recent jump in inflation and, rightly in our view, see it as temporary. If anything, they are... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Brazilian industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, means that the Q1 GDP data are likely to be ugly. We’ll firm up our forecast when more data are released... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in the first half of April, was driven almost entirely by stronger food and fuel inflation. There are signs in the breakdown that inflation has now... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brazil This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Brazil’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
