Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan. 2021) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January, down from 0.8% m/m in December, confirms that momentum in the sector is easing. Moreover, with services sector being harder hit by the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2020) The larger-than-expected 3.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy had one of the better performances in Latin America last year. But there is strong evidence to suggest that the... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COVID-19 outbreak putting recovery on ice The growing strains in Brazil’s health system caused by the latest COVID-19 outbreak are likely to result in a further tightening of containment measures in the coming days, hitting the economic... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) The robust 0.9% m/m rise in Brazil’s industrial production caps off a strong recovery in the sector over the second half of 2020. But the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the rampant second wave of... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2021) The above-target Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for January, of 4.3% y/y, is likely to be followed by a jump in the headline rate in the coming months, keeping Copom in hawkish mood. But while... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.3% y/y last month, was (again) the result of higher food inflation. But inflation in most other price categories fell last month which may help to ease... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 1.1% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in October confirms that, after what looks to have been a very strong Q3, the economy held up well at the start of Q4. Surveys suggest that this... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazilian stocks may do well despite fiscal drama It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2020) The jump in Brazilian inflation, to a seven-month high of 3.5% y/y in the middle of October, was driven almost entirely by the ongoing spike in food inflation. This is likely to keep inflation high in... 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2020) The jump in Brazilian inflation, to 3.1% y/y in September, was almost entirely driven by surging food inflation. Food inflation is likely to continue putting upward pressure on the headline rate in... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production suggests that the sector has now returned to close to its pre-crisis level of output. But the data also provide some early confirmation that the... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian food inflation pushed up the headline rate to 2.7% y/y in the first half of September but, with core inflation still extremely soft, we doubt the central bank will be... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic rate to stay low for longer than most expect The dovish tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 2.00%) supports our view that the policy rate will remain at its current... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
