Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Xi signals state sector to remain dominant Hopes that President Xi would use his speech today on the 40th anniversary of the start of China’s “Reform and Opening Up” to announce a renewed push for market-based reforms were disappointed. Rather... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What ‘serious consequences’ could China mean? If the emerging diplomatic spat with China escalates further, there are a number of measures that China could use to inflict economic damage on Canada. But given that Canada’s trade exposures to China... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2019 China’s economic slowdown looks set to deepen next year, weighing on equity prices and the renminbi. Policy stimulus should put a floor beneath growth before the year is out but won’t drive a strong... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little festive cheer for commodities The prices of most commodities, including oil, traded in a narrow range this week, at least until Friday when weak economic data out of China prompted a synchronised fall in prices. We suspect that... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade Concessions, Reform and Opening Up 2.0? China resumed purchases of US soybeans this week and pledged to cut auto tariffs. But to clinch a lasting trade deal, it will need to convince the US that it is moving ahead with long-promised... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Investment and consumption both appear to have cooled last month, with softer foreign demand also weighing on industrial production. We think further weakness is on the horizon. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in broad credit weakened further in November, suggesting that policymakers will need to increase support over the coming months in order to stabilise economic growth. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No respite in sight for plummeting Chinese steel prices Chinese steel prices have slumped recently but with demand set to be weak over the coming months and less stringent pollution controls, we expect steel prices to drop by a further 20% over the next... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Nov.) Export growth slowed last month but this reflects unflattering base effects and softer global growth rather than US tariffs. A bigger concern is the sharp drop in import growth which, coupled with... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
