China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) Speculation that the People’s Bank (PBOC) stepped up intervention last month to stabilise the exchange rate doesn’t appear to be borne out by the data on its FX reserves. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff Man or dealmaker? The arrest of Huawei’s CFO and recent Trump tweets boasting that he is “Tariff Man” have sparked concerns about the durability of the US-China trade truce. But there are still some grounds for... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s PMIs China’s November survey data point to persistent weakness in economic activity, which will continue to be a factor weighing on the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade ceasefire is no growth panacea, even if it lasts The ceasefire agreed by Trump and Xi will help avert a sharp slowdown in US-China trade at the start of next year. But negotiations toward a lasting deal are likely to be fraught. And broader... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) Downbeat official PMI readings for November suggest that growth remains under pressure, with signs that the recent uptick in construction activity is fizzling out as local governments pare back... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the tariffs so far The trade war has so far resulted in a much sharper slowdown in China’s imports from the US than its exports to the US. But exports will weaken soon unless existing tariffs are rolled back. 28th November 2018 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India slumped on a y/y basis in October. However, we expect a rebound in imports to India in the coming months as gold prices in rupee terms have dropped back. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade truce wouldn’t avert further fall in RMB, equities Expectations are low that Presidents Xi and Trump will resolve their differences at the G20 summit, but a temporary truce that puts on hold the planned US tariff hike in January is possible. In this... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
