Global Economics Update US/China deal is limited comfort for global economy We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China’s PMI unlikely to last The latest pick-up in the unofficial PMI data does not change our expectation of a slowdown in China’s economy, which underpins our forecast of mostly weaker commodity prices, especially industrial... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The unofficial PMI rebounded last month, after slumping in January. Looking through this volatility, the survey data remain consistent with our expectation for a further slowdown in economic growth in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data suggest that manufacturing output growth slowed last month, possibly to its weakest level since 2009. Construction activity also appears to have softened, raising questions over... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade talk optimism, RMB stability pledge Negotiators are making progress sketching out the specifics of a US-China trade deal, which suggests that Trump is likely to postpone the tariff hikes scheduled for next week. But the big picture is... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Exports now showing impact of tariffs The impact of US tariffs on China’s exports was initially masked by firms rushing out shipments of unaffected products in an attempt to beat any tariffs that came in later. That “front-running” seems... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks take a dovish turn The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in many emerging markets, combined with growing expectations for looser monetary policy in the developed world, has prompted a dovish... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global production growth plummeted in January, but given that input costs are falling, we think that output growth will recover later this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Foreign debt not a major risk in the near term Concerns about China’s external debt have increased recently as interest rates abroad have risen and slowing domestic economic momentum has put firms’ balance sheets under strain. But much of the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth rapidly losing momentum The latest figures show that EM export sectors faltered at the end of 2018. Chinese trade numbers for January were surprisingly upbeat, but seasonal effects are probably distorting the real trend. We... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Wider credit spreads dulling impact of policy easing Rising defaults have widened credit spreads during the past year, preventing borrowing costs for less creditworthy firms from falling in response to looser monetary conditions. Given that subprime... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
