Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Strong construction activity propping up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up fairly well in October, supported by robust construction activity. But with a property demand weak and signs that developers are becoming... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly FDI defying trade tensions, property price data quirks The recent strength of direct investment into China is a reminder that, despite rising US tariff barriers, the country remains an attractive destination for foreign firms. Even so, policymakers... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s latest activity and investment data paint a mixed picture of metals demand but we expect growth in consumption to slow until mid-2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October activity and spending data were mostly better than anticipated. But despite an uptick in industrial output and investment, we doubt that economic growth has bottomed out just yet. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker suggests that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world picked up to about $100bn in the three months to October, the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The pace of borrowing hit fresh lows in October, after a push by local governments to shore up infrastructure spending failed to have a lasting impact. Policymakers will therefore need to take further... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs weigh on imports, but boost exports A closer look at the trade data for October bolsters our suspicions that firms have been frontloading shipments from China to the US. Meanwhile, President Xi opened this week’s import expo with an... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation remained elevated in October. But with core inflation subdued and producer price inflation easing, we doubt policymakers will be too concerned. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Import demand proves resilient, for now China’s commodity import volumes generally held up well last month, despite the ongoing slowdown in broader economic activity. However, all the signs point to weaker import growth in the coming months... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Chinese export growth picked up slightly last month, with no sign yet that US tariffs have had a major negative impact. Import growth also picked up, driven largely by growth in underlying volumes. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The PBOC appears to have intervened directly in the foreign exchange market again in October. But its intervention remains small in scale and seems calibrated to slow the renminbi’s fall rather than... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
