China Activity Monitor Construction props up activity, but headwinds remain Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up in December driven by strong construction activity. But with credit now growing at the slowest pace in more than a decade and the impact of... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Demographic headwinds building China’s working age population is currently falling by around 0.2% per year and in 2018 employment contracted for the first time in the reform era. These developments aren’t a surprise but the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Impact of China's slowdown on the global economy China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese slowdown one of many reasons for concern China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs now less exposed to a China slowdown? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector weakens as consumers hold back The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today points toward softer service sector activity last quarter on the back of slower property sales and weaker consumer spending. We expect... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Growth edged down last quarter, with the slowdown on the official GDP figures corroborated by other data. Conditions improved somewhat in December, but we expect the uptick in industrial output and... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to guide interest rates lower, 2017 GDP revised The liquidity injection by the PBOC this week was the largest on record. But it was mainly intended to manage the usual cash crunch ahead of Chinese New Year rather than loosen monetary conditions... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus won’t prevent further economic slowdown Officials have stepped up policy support in response to faltering domestic momentum. But with credit now growing at the weakest pace in more than a decade, the economy will not stabilise until at... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
