China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) A fresh slowdown in broad credit growth in September adds to the downside risks to growth and is likely to trigger further policy easing over the coming months. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons we expect the renminbi to breach 7.0 Slower economic growth, monetary easing and escalating trade tensions will all put the renminbi under pressure in the months ahead. The People’s Bank will continue to lean in the other direction but... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Policymakers are likely to look through the latest pick-up in consumer price inflation and focus instead on evidence of cooling economic momentum, including slower core inflation and weaker factory... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equities have further to fall, lacklustre “Golden Week” The stock market sell-off this week is a reminder that Chinese equities won’t be immune if, as we expect, the S&P 500 falls sharply next year. Meanwhile, data on tourism and retail spending during the... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to defy US tariffs last month but imports softened in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to weaken in the coming quarters as economic growth slows in China and among... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices set to tumble Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to ease policy further but retain its grip on RMB We think the upcoming reduction in banks’ required reserve ratio will be followed by cuts to the policy rate to ensure that interbank rates fall far enough to boost lending. But despite its growing... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC facing RMB test, tax crackdown intensifying The People’s Bank faces a test when it sets the renminbi fix on Monday morning. With onshore markets closed for the past week, a wedge has opened between where the renminbi last stood onshore and its... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply prospects take centre stage Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in China’s PMIs do not bode well for prices The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The latest PMI readings suggest that growth slowed last month. The breakdown points toward weaker exports, though it’s too soon to know if this is due to US tariffs or simply the result of cooling... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
