Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Politburo signals policy support The Politburo statement this week gave a clear signal that further policy support for China’s economy is on the way. But with headwinds building, we don’t expect to see clear signs of economic... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weak commodities demand The latest survey data out of China paint a subdued picture of economic growth and offer little support to the prices of industrial and energy commodities. What’s more, any policy stimulus to boost... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The latest survey data, while not as bad as some feared, still paint a fairly downbeat picture. We expect the economy to weaken further in the coming months, triggering additional policy easing. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will low valuations cause EM equities to outperform? Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) Downbeat official PMI readings for October suggest that while policy support is having some effect on construction activity, it has yet to fully offset broader downward pressure on the rest of the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down, more weakness on the horizon Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged down last month and shows a more pronounced slowdown over the past year than the official GDP figures. We anticipate further weakness ahead as... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equity rout hurts lending, scant relief for private firms Policymakers are worrying about the widespread use in China of shares as collateral for lending – for good reason. But the remedies announced this week are unlikely to make much of a difference as... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for China and India show gold imports tumbled in September and higher gold prices in October could mean that imports remain weak, despite the Indian wedding season. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Growth in global steel production accelerated in September to 4.4% y/y, with mills ramping up in China and the US buoyed by healthy margins in both countries. We expect winter production cuts in China... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tax cuts, less infrastructure spending It comes as no surprise that Chinese officials are responding to slower growth by easing fiscal policy. But an increased focus on tax cuts and the lack of a revival in off-budget borrowing suggests... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) Official GDP growth slowed last quarter consistent with broader evidence that the economy is cooling. There are some early signs in the September data that policy support is starting to gain traction... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak auto sales signal lower metals prices ahead Automobile demand has been sluggish for several months in China. This will weigh on demand for most metals and lead to lower prices too, especially for platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
