Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Policymakers have been making a coordinated effort today to provide reassurance that more stimulus is in the pipeline. But today’s data showing growth of outstanding credit still at its slowest pace... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil bucks the negative trend in China’s trade data China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in December. Admittedly, oil imports rose strongly but this was probably opportunistic buying on the back of the slump in price rather than a sign... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth dropped more than anticipated in December as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Official targets point to low expectations for 2019 The economic targets for 2019 that have been leaked this week signal official acknowledgement that China’s growth is slowing. Nonetheless, the low target for the fiscal deficit suggests that... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Following the drop back in oil prices, consumer price inflation returned below 2% last month. Meanwhile, producer prices are now on the brink of returning to deflation territory. Slowing inflation is... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Having experienced capital inflows of almost $150bn in 2017, we estimate that EMs suffered capital outflows of around $70bn in 2018. Our Tracker suggests that the pace of capital outflows eased... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese imports After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have sold only a small amount of foreign exchange last month, suggesting that the renminbi has faced little downward pressure recently. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese growth to stay weak despite policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC eases policy, trade talks back in focus In keeping with its usual practice of making policy moves late on Fridays, the PBOC today announced a 100bp cut to the required reserve ratio aimed at supporting the economy and managing liquidity... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth to remain weak despite added policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs dampen any new year optimism Commodity prices are mostly falling on the first day of trading in 2019 as China’s December PMIs showed that the economy finished 2018 on a weak note. While the authorities are loosening policy, we... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Year ending with growth slipping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a slowdown to near 5% growth in November. The government Economic Work Conference just concluded with a pledge to increase fiscal support and hints that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s flawed “China model”, PBOC’s new policy tool Xi Jinping used the 40 th anniversary of the start of China’s economic reforms to set out a narrative which placed state and, in particular, Party control at the heart of China’s subsequent economic... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
