China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The jump in bank lending last month was mostly seasonal. But after months of declines, broad credit growth did edge up in January, hinting that monetary easing may be starting to gain more traction. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Below-consensus inflation in January suggests that demand remained sluggish at the start of the year. Factory gate prices are now falling, which is likely to feed through to weaker profit growth among... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The January trade data were much stronger than anticipated but seasonal volatility caused by annual shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year make it difficult to get a good grip on underlying trends... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have intervened little in FX markets last month, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the economy likely to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s industrial activity data suggest that metals demand held up well in the last quarter of 2018, but we don’t expect this to last in 2019 as a downturn in economic activity will weigh on demand. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus far smaller than in past downturns China looks likely to introduce only about half as much fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the current downturn as it did in 2015/16. Any rebound in growth will be much more tepid as a result... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi to weaken again, banks boost capital buffers Progress in the US-China trade talks and the dollar’s fall following the US Fed’s dovish policy statement this week pushed the renminbi to a six-month high. But we think that pressure on the currency... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The slump in the Caixin manufacturing PMI reading in January to its lowest since February 2016 paints a much bleaker picture than the official PMI reading released yesterday. With the headwinds from... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the official manufacturing PMI didn’t weaken any further in January, it still suggests that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year. 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports ringing alarm bells Most recent signs point to a gradual deceleration in China’s economy but the import data are a key exception, showing an abrupt contraction in November and December. While there appear to be several... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Dec.) The latest trade data from India and China show that gold imports slumped in December. We expect the decline in imports to continue in India, for January at least, as prices are higher in local... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
