China Activity Monitor Growth edges lower but short-run trough is near Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy weakened further in March. But the slowdown so far this year has been milder than we had anticipated and may be close to bottoming out. We have... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on Pacific coal A stabilisation of economic growth in China should support the price of Pacific coal in 2019, but in the longer term we expect prices to slide as demand softens and supply increases. 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equities may fall further as recovery underwhelms The less dovish tone of recent comments from the People’s Bank and from Premier Li is the latest sign that policymakers are keen to avoid the sort of debt-financed surge in growth that followed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property demand to remain subdued A further acceleration in home prices on the official survey of 70 cities has sparked hopes that China’s residential property market may be heating up after more than a year of nearly flat sales. But... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Seasonality, tax cuts distort the industrial output data Among the better-than-expected data published this week, industrial output growth stood out as especially strong after it jumped by the most since March 2009. But there are reasons to think that... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) China’s economy stabilised in Q1 thanks to a marked improvement in activity last month. Admittedly, the latest surge in industrial production is hard to take at face value and is likely to be... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Will residency reforms revive the property market? The government’s plans to make it easier for rural migrants in small cities to acquire urban residency permits have raised hopes of a revival in property sales. But the nationwide impact will probably... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Stronger-than-anticipated exports hint at an uptick in foreign demand but disappointing imports suggest that domestic demand may not be holding up as well as hoped. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Higher food and oil prices pushed up headline inflation last month but broader price pressures remained subdued and we don’t anticipate an imminent turnaround in underlying inflation. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
