China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel set to lose its star performer tag Nickel prices have surged since the start of this year, but we think that this leaves the metal particularly vulnerable to the global economic slowdown and higher output. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The latest data suggest that economic conditions remained weak at the start of 2019, with developers paring back property construction and infrastructure spending underwhelming. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in Chinese equities built on shaky foundations The surge in China’s mainland equity markets since the start of the year looks excessive, even allowing for renewed optimism about stimulus in China and the possibility of a US-China trade deal. Since... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The sharp drop in lending last month reversed much of the jump in January. With the trajectory of credit growth still pointing to further economic weakness, we think the People’s Bank will need to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All the signs point to weaker demand After a relatively quiet week, the prices of most commodities took a tumble on Friday afternoon following the release of weak US February employment data. A rise of just 20,000 in non-farm payrolls... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly On contradictions (from the NPC) There is a tension between the policy stimulus announced this week at the National People’s Congress and the government’s goal of keeping the debt ratio stable. Ultimately, we expect officials to err... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The implications of a comprehensive US-China deal We have argued before that a limited US-China trade agreement ruling out further tariffs now appears largely priced in to markets. But the chances of a more comprehensive deal, including the roll-back... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trade deal will not prevent prices falling Industrial metals prices have risen robustly this year, but we think that the rally is running out of steam. Even if a US - China trade agreement is reached, a slowdown in global growth and an... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) does not appear to have intervened substantially in FX markets in February, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Risk appetite likely to fade Increasing signs of a US-China trade deal prompted a return of risk appetite and led to the prices of many industrial metals hitting multi-month highs and a sell-off in gold and silver. However, even... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s unrealistic pledges to import US commodities There has been a surprisingly muted reaction in commodity markets to the latest reports that China and the US are close to a trade deal. We think this reflects a combination of the fact that much of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Initial thoughts on China's National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress in China is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will smaller EM Asian markets keep underperforming? Smaller stock markets in EM Asia have missed out on most of the big rally in global equities since around the turn of the year. But the characteristics that explain their relative weakness so far in... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns about... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
