Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Maybe the good news is priced in? All the signs are that US-China trade talks are progressing well. On Friday, there were even media reports that the two sides had agreed timelines for implementing a deal. Given the good news on trade... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More monetary easing still on the cards Markets no longer expect further monetary easing in China but we aren’t convinced. Headwinds to growth look set to resurface as support from fiscal front-loading wanes, at which stage the stimulus... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Still grounds for caution, despite stronger China PMIs The strength of the latest China survey data may signal that growth there has passed its low-point. But we think there are still reasons to be cautious, with negative implications for most commodity... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The strength of the latest survey data suggests that growth in China may already be bottoming out. But there are still reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Consumer sentiment softens, inflation risks rise The latest central bank surveys suggest that firms turned more upbeat this quarter as trade tensions eased and banks expanded lending. However, this positive shift in business sentiment has yet to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weak profits strengthen case for benchmark rate cuts A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal front-loading, land demand, BRI obstacles While China’s incoming economic data have mostly been weak recently, two under-reported positives have helped shore up growth: a fiscal splurge by local governments and strong property construction... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slows further in early 2019 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy softened in the second half of 2018 and weakened further in the first two months of this year. The slowdown has been mild so far, with growth... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market softens The jump in China’s unemployment rate from 4.9% in December to 5.3% last month, the highest in nearly two years, has added to the worries about the economy. The survey-based unemployment rate may not... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
