Filtered by Topic: Trump's second term Use setting Trump's second term
Trump-Musk Bromance: Economic implications Elon Musk has become one of Donald Trump’s biggest campaign supporters and donors in recent months, contributing $75 million to his America PAC and sharing the stage at events with the former President. Musk and …
25th October 2024
Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, if the US …
We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. At face value, it’s surprising how well Asia’s currencies …
A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets (notably Turkey) could hike rates and others that are …
24th October 2024
Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big blow to Mexico’s economy – a 0.6% drop in real GDP for …
23rd October 2024
A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and the need to spend more on defence at a time when fiscal …
22nd October 2024
With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To recap, we suspect Trump’s proposed curbs on immigration …
Donald Trump says ‘tariff’ is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That’s up for debate – but what’s less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, …
18th October 2024
On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted …
7th October 2024
A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would …
12th September 2024
Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%. We commented previously on the impact that Donald …
8th August 2024
If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it could take some time to implement them. The upshot is …
31st July 2024
We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric vehicle (EV) sector. We expect that both supply and …
25th July 2024
Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might happen to sanctions on Russia, and the possible …
23rd July 2024
It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his efforts on securing Senate approval for future …
11th July 2024
In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and …
1st July 2024
This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
Trump’s return could benefit India With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display in an interview with the Time magazine this week, what might the implications of a second Trump presidency be for India? India is not as dependent on US …
3rd May 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration or, now we learn, …
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
18th March 2024
Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi-tech …
12th March 2024
The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter, Mexico would be one of the most affected EMs. And even …
We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in response to a much higher US tariff on Chinese imports. …
26th February 2024
Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if he is elected again. And the factors that cushioned …
23rd February 2024
We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term would also be a headwind for equities – especially …
22nd February 2024
Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far worse position than back in 2017, however, it’s notable …
12th February 2024
Trump’s new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from …
31st January 2024
Trump faces first test in Iowa Iowa marks the start of the primary race Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should …
12th January 2024
The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or changed their geopolitical stance. Even then, the …
7th December 2023
The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the environment and international relations. Historically, US …
2nd October 2023
