While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming administration will scrutinise Chinese investment across the Americas to a much greater degree. For Latin American economies, it’s likely to be much harder to straddle the geopolitical divide. Meanwhile, full-year figures show that Brazil’s trade surplus shrank by a quarter last year and, although most analysts think it will stabilise from here, we think it will narrow further this year.
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