US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024) While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The slight uptick in the unemployment rate last month belies a renewed acceleration in employment growth. Accordingly, the data are unlikely to assuage the RBA’s concerns about a tight labour market. 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24) While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks... 14th August 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The smaller-than-expected rise in CPI inflation from 2.0% in June to 2.2% in July (consensus forecast 2.3%, Capital Economics 2.1%, Bank of England 2.4%) and the sharp fall in services inflation from... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will loosen policy aggressively The RBNZ began its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut at its meeting today. Although the Bank appeared to strike a cautious tone about further policy easing, we think it will cut rates more... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (July) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in final demand PPI and unchanged core PPI for July is not quite as good as it looks, but it is nevertheless consistent with the Fed’s preferred core PCE prices measure... 13th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank of... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2024) The RBA probably won’t read too much into the fact that annual wage growth stalled last quarter. A gradual loosening of the labour market should ensure that wage pressures do ease in the quarters... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
