Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (November 24) Growth in base pay rose to its highest figure since 1992 in November, and we think that it will continue to hold strong through to this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales slump to drag into 2025 The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect... 8th January 2025 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Dec. 2024) The small decline in purchase mortgage applications in December is worse than it looks, as it masks a collapse in demand in the final few weeks of the month, driven by mortgage rates climbing above 7%... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan can’t declare 2% inflation victory just yet We now expect underlying inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for most of 2025 and the Bank to hike rates to 1.25%. However, we believe that it’s too early for the Bank to declare... 8th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 24) 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2025 Though we think the market has bottomed, we expect a very weak recovery this year, unlike in other cycles. In fact, we think valuation falls still have further to go, leaving our forecasts generally... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in corporate bankruptcies not a big concern The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it does add to the sense that firms are struggling more than the headline GDP and labour market data suggest. That in turn... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Lower quits point to easing wage growth The November JOLTS data, when paired with recent employment reports, show a labour market returning to pre-pandemic norms. Meanwhile, the fall in the private quits rate to its lowest since the height... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Dec. 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index in December will soothe concerns that the services sector is starting to run out of steam. Less positively, the surge in the prices paid index to a nearly two... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor within a whisker of breaking her fiscal rule There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024) The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Nov) The US trade deficit widened again to $78.2bn in November, from $73.6bn, as imports rebounded by 3.4%, outpacing a 2.7% recovery in exports, with shipments in both directions recovering after the... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in the Halifax house price index in December is at odds with the chunky rise in the Nationwide measure and suggests that recent rises in mortgage rates started to weigh on the housing... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
