US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s composite PMI provides further evidence that some of the recent strength of activity in the first half of this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the mild recession in the... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (July 30-31) The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation? We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024) The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Employment growth probably weaker than reported We believe that employment growth isn’t as strong as the Australian Bureau of Statistics is reporting because net migration seems to have weakened more sharply than the ABS is assuming. While it will... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2024) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2024/25 forecast of... 21st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Time to go shopping for retail assets Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the... 20th August 2024 · 21 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services inflation will start falling again soon There are good reasons to expect services inflation to start falling again towards the end of this year and in 2025. But as long as wage growth remains high, services inflation will stay strong too. 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlook 1725436800 After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024?
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
