UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank of... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2024) The RBA probably won’t read too much into the fact that annual wage growth stalled last quarter. A gradual loosening of the labour market should ensure that wage pressures do ease in the quarters... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping costs still elevated, but no longer rising Container shipping costs have fallen back slightly in the past few weeks. And while the potential for further shipping disruptions makes the outlook for shipping costs highly uncertain, as things... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Temporary disruption or more serious downturn? In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets... 9th August 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Strong rebound in housing activity an upside risk to GDP Our forecast implies that the recovery in the housing market will both directly and indirectly add about 0.8% to the level of GDP by the end of 2026. But the risk is that the housing market rebound is... 9th August 2024 · 11 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Diverse occupier base to support Southern office demand After an already-tough H1 for information sector jobs, we expect the second half of the year to see further cuts, which will be bad news for tech-heavy metros in the West. But a more diverse occupier... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off... 8th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2024) Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
