Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with industrial weakness in December The manufacturing PMIs overstated the weakness of industrial activity in 2024 but, at face value, their decline throughout most of the world in December suggests that the sector has entered 2025 on a... 2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our 2024 key calls hold up? 2024 was another difficult year for commercial real estate. Although the sector appears to have fared better than we expected, our key calls were broadly right in terms of direction and winners and... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions stabilise We forecast a 140,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December. Meanwhile, we expect the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings growth to be unchanged, at 4.2% and 4.0% respectively. 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2024) December’s better-than-expected 0.7% m/m increase in Nationwide house prices means that prices continued to gather momentum at the end of last year despite the rise in mortgage rates, rising by a... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian house price growth to remain weak in 2025 There was little festive cheer in Australia’s housing market last month, with house prices stagnating across the country’s eight capital cities. Given our view that the RBA has only limited room to... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix to lead the way Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in... 23rd December 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct. 2024) The stronger-than-expected increase in GDP in October and upward revisions to the prior two months leaves fourth-quarter growth on track to accelerate to 2% annualised, raising the chance of the Bank... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2024 2nd Estimate) The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% isn’t quite as bad as it looks and leaves scope for a lively debate with the family over the festive period about whether or not the economy is... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow” Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025 We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Nov) The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) Retail sales volumes were unchanged in October, bringing a run of strong consecutive monthly gains to an end. Moreover, the preliminary estimate that sales values were unchanged in November too... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
