UK Economics Weekly Higher fuel duty wouldn’t reignite inflation In a week when the Prime Minister said that the coming Budget will be “painful”, we think there’s a growing chance that fuel duty will rise from next year for the first time since 2011. That will... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2024) Although second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, the downgrade to GDP in June and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in July imply that third-quarter growth will be much... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Jul.) The July income and spending report shows price pressures remaining muted despite the strength of real consumption. The latter suggests that third-quarter consumption growth will be 3.7%. Even... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024) July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Aug. 2024) Despite the recent declines in mortgage rates, the small fall in the Nationwide house price index in August suggests affordability constraints on households continue to bite. But the further drop in... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025 The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 24) The July activity data suggest that the economic recovery continued in Q3 but shifted down at least one gear. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jul. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Aug. 24) The jump in the unemployment rate in July should reverse before long as economic activity rebounds. Meanwhile, the renewed pick-up in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August is consistent with our... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update So what if Nvidia was priced for perfection? The slide in Nvidia’s shares after the release of its latest consensus-beating results bolsters the argument that it was priced for perfection. But that doesn’t mean its party is over, or that the AI... 29th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 2024) 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
