Canada Economic Outlook Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive... 18th December 2024 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response Current Account (Q3) The current account deficit widened to a $310.9bn, or 4.2% of GDP, in the third quarter, up from 3.7% of GDP in the second. Admittedly, the deficit briefly hit 4.6% of GDP in early 2022, when easing... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) Coming on the back of the stronger-than-expected rise in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the further rebound in CPI inflation published today means there is almost no chance of the Bank of England... 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Nov. 2024) The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation back below the 2.0% target in November reflected steep price falls in a handful of components related to consumer goods, driven by Black Friday discounts, which... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct. 2024) The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a resurgence in inflation despite the weak news on activity. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fall Economic Statement a secondary event The Fall Economic Statement (FES) showed a much larger budget deficit for the previous fiscal year than previously estimated, but that was largely due to one-off charges related to indigenous... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers... 16th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec. 2024) The rise in home sales in November builds on the jump in October and is particularly positive considering some buyers may have held off from purchases ahead of the new mortgage rules that took effect... 16th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Immigration curbs a key downside risk to DM growth Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth... 16th December 2024 · 29 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024) Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Muted price data cements 25bp cut The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting. 13th December 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why is the economy struggling so much? The loss of economic momentum in the second half of the year isn't just due to the Budget but may also be due to the drag from high interest rates lasting longer and a growing restraint from weak... 13th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
