Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 5th August 2024, 1:30PM BST Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears? And do moves in asset prices point to a...
Japan Economics Focus Rental growth will continue to lag income growth While faster wage growth should eventually result in a significant pick-up in rental inflation, it seems likely that rental growth will trail income growth for the foreseeable future. That means that... 5th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to disappoint the Bank The data this week suggested that second-quarter GDP growth was a touch stronger than expected at 2.1% annualised. We expect higher oil export capacity and strong immigration to prevent a sharp... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s hawkish tilt It may seem odd that we’re still forecasting interest rates to fall from 5.00% now to 4.50% this year and to 3.00% next year when the Bank of England said this week that it doesn't expect to cut rates... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jul.) The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and sharper rise in the unemployment rate makes a September interest rate cut inevitable and will increase speculation that the Fed will kick off its loosening... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan encouraged by pick-up in consumption A rebound in retail sales likely underpinned the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates this week. Measures by the government, including tax cuts and electricity and gas subsidies, should... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Could the RBA still hike rates? Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity slowed sharply at the start of Q3, and that activity will probably slow further. But weaker activity hasn’t taken the heat out of... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2024) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July raises the risk that GDP growth will lose momentum in the third quarter, and the plunge in the employment index will add to concerns that the... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024) 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed lays the groundwork for September rate cut There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July) There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it... 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
