Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA Board, Aus. Budget Update, NZ GDP Although the Australian Treasurer’s new appointments to the RBA’s monetary policy committee were well received, the same cannot be said of his mid-year Budget Update. The government appears intent on... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to decline in Q4 overall. And although that will bring little... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2024) Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But the weakening in the economy and recent rises in market interest rates suggests the government... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2024) The increase in existing home sales in November, despite rising mortgage rates and weakening mortgage applications the month before, points to stronger demand from cash buyers, possibly driven by... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the... 19th December 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish hold suggests rates will be cut further than markets expect While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Dec. 2024) While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025 The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 24) November’s surge in inflation wasn’t a surprise – the Bank of Japan will have known it was on the cards when it decided not to hike rates yesterday. But it should add to the Bank’s confidence that it... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2024) With activity in freefall, we expect the RBNZ to keep cutting rates aggressively over the year ahead. 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec) The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
