Japan Economics Focus BoJ would only cut rates if economy tanks While we expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% next year, the Bank’s still very accommodative stance means that this alone won’t trigger interest rate cuts. We think it would require a... 19th August 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024) Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024) The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly More good data all around The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024) It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jul. 2024) The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
