US Economics Update What to make of the rise in business bankruptcies? Business bankruptcies rose further in the first half of 2024, mainly due to higher Chapter 11 filings as firms were forced to restructure their debts. It is typically the change in borrowing costs... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May.) The larger-than-expected rise in GDP in May suggests that the economy performed a little better than we anticipated last quarter, although the preliminary estimate of only a small rise in June is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q2) The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks to interest rates have increased We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%... 31st July 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Wage pressures continue to ease The JOLTS labour market data for June will do little to change the Fed’s assessment of labour market conditions ahead of its policy announcement tomorrow, with slack continuing to grow gradually and... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024) Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house... 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How will Reeves fill the £22bn spending shortfall? Our best judgement is that in order to fund the increase in spending of £22bn outlined by the Chancellor today, Reeves will raise an additional £10bn a year (0.3% of GDP) via higher taxes and increase... 29th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
