Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2024) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in October is the second such decline in a row and means there is every chance that the economy went backwards in Q4 as a whole. Talk of a recession still feels a bit... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q4 2024) The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
BoE Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger consecutive rate cuts Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Nov) Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024) November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2024) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, there’s little need for the RBA to rush to loosen policy. Accordingly, we still think the Bank won’t deliver its first rate cut before next May. 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Three ways the Spending Review could affect fiscal policy With pressures on public spending continuing to grow, this has raised the chances that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, raises spending further in her 2025 Spending Review. If she raises spending and... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to revert to 25bp cuts Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close... 11th December 2024 · 9 mins read
