Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a tougher year than the consensus, with higher inflation and higher interest rates for longer leading to a bigger rise in the unemployment rate and a deeper recession. But in 2024, we think that both inflation and interest rates will fall further than the consensus, which will contribute to a decent recovery in economic growth.
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