Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere, tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified and a reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in April seems likely. Finally, this week's data and central bank communications have prompted us to tweak our interest rate forecasts. We now expect interest rates in Chile to come down more quickly while easing in Mexico and Colombia is likely to be more gradual than we'd previously anticipated.
EM Drop-In: We'll be discussing EM policy easing, debt risks and the outlook for bond yields in our monthly EM drop-in on Thursday 8th February. Register here.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services